Believe it or not, the U.S. is not currently in a recession. How do we know? The unemployment rate is 3.7%. Back in November of 2002 it was 5.9%, and in November of 2012 the rate was 7.7%.
How will we know when we’re in a recession?
- The Unemployment Rate will increase
- Home and Auto Sales will steadily decline
- U.S. spending will dwindle
- Gas prices will increase
- The price of copper will decrease
- Panic will become more widespread
Although we can’t help how the average person feels about how our country is doing, we can share some positive statistics we’re seeing and offer a little hope this holiday season.
First off, home sales in the U.S. are slightly lower this month compared to last but not in all states. In Florida, home sales were up 21% in October. And the Midwest and Northwest are “in demand markets” where home sales continue to be hot. If you refer to a report from the Census Bureau you’ll notice that home sales were strong in 2022 and overall higher than in 2021.
Whether we’re referring to new or used cars, sales are affected by supply and demand. The numbers we’re seeing seem to suggest the supply chain issues are improving. U.S. vehicle sales in October rose 9.8% with a daily selling rate of 44,299- up from last October (38,926). Nice. We’ll take it!
What about U.S. spending? Trading Economics has personal spending at .06%, higher than what was predicted, and consumer spending at 14,149.03 USD Billion which increased. Will that spending continue through December?
And we all know gas prices have been plunging. Some states are even luckier at the pumps than others, depending on their taxes. If you’d like to see the state-by-state comparison of prices at the pump, AAA has a nice chart on their website.
Why do we care about the price of copper? Considering its many uses, when copper prices drop that’s a sign that less appliances are being sold, and fewer homes are being built, etc. Today’s copper price is lower, that is true, but up to $3.64 from October’s rate of $3.47. Check out Macrotrends 45-Year Historical Copper Prices Chart to see how far copper prices have come over the years. We have seen much worse prices on copper than we are today.
If you are reading this blog and shrugging your shoulders and wondering, “if things are fine, why do we seem to be struggling at home?”.
- Sit down with a piece of paper and do the math to see what you’re spending on entertainment, i.e., cable, Netflix and other streaming apps, etc. then cancel a service or two.
- If you go out to eat often, or make daily Starbucks runs during the workday, make coffee, and eat meals at home. TIP: Try meal kits to reduce impulse buying at the grocery store. Hello Fresh and Every Plate have nice options for singles, couples and families.
- Grocery store prices are higher because of the supply chain, so don’t pay even more by using apps like Instacart. If you’re sick or have surgery, use it while you recover but don’t pay the yearly fee. They usually offer a free trial period to new users.
- And talk to family members about not buying for everyone this Christmas. (We’ll have creative tips for you in our next blog that will help you enjoy the spirit of giving no matter your budget!)
We want you to know that we are here for you anytime you have questions or need financial advice. Just give us a call.
800-689-3935